Thomas Picks the SEC Bowls

article by Thomas Danielson, senior writer and head of statistical research and analysis dept., secfootballpodcast.com

Music City Bowl
Vanderbilt (6-6)(4-4) vs. #27 Boston College (9-4)(5-4)

Tom's Pick --->

BC leads Vandy in total yds, passing yds, rushing yds, and total points scored. Commodores have scored more than 14 points just once in their last eight games and rank 113th nationally with 122.8 passing yards per game. They haven't won a bowl game since 1955, and BC looks to win their 9th in a row, an NCAA record. Despite having home-field advantage in this one, I don't think the Dores have what it takes to win this game. Eagles will win by two touchdowns, maybe three.

Liberty Bowl
Kentucky (6-6)(2-6) vs. #30 East Carolina (9-4)(7-2) C-USA Champs

<--- Tom's Pick
These teams are very close when comparing stats, offense or defense. UK has actually allowed less points this year, which includes a 63-5 rout from the Gators. Hartline will have the start for the Wildcats, with Cobb out for the season with knee surgery. ECU had some impressive upsets to start the year with wins at home against WVU and V-Tech. Well it's now December, and the Wildcats are going to show critics why 2-6 in the SEC isn't so bad. UK wins 28-24.

Outback Bowl
South Carolina (7-5)(4-4) vs. #26 Iowa (8-4)(5-3)

Tom's Pick --->
Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and the Doak Walker Award winner as the nation's best running back, Shonn Greene, set a school record with 1,729 rushing yards this season. He was the only FBS back to rush for at least 100 yards in every game. Wow! I would've said in week 12 that the Gamecock D could hold this guy, but after slipping to Clemson to end the season and getting routed by UF 56-6, I'm not so sure. Iowa ranks 8th nationally in scoring D allowing only 13.3 ppg. I like the Hawkeyes in this one. Sorry Cocks, but Iowa will grind it out, 24-17.

Peach Bowl
LSU (7-5)(3-5) vs. #14 Georgia Tech (9-3)(5-3)

<--- Tom's Pick
The contest will be a rematch of the 2000 bowl, then still known as the Peach Bowl, that was won 28-14 by LSU. The teams' meeting in 2000 was their 18th overall, but first since 1963. The Yellow Jackets lead the series 12-6. Georgia Tech ran for over 400 yds in their regular season finale against Georgia, also have won 3 of their last 4 games, all against ranked opponents. I'm picking LSU for the 13th time this season, and this time it's because they have had a month to get ready for Paul Johnson's rushing attack, twice as long to prepare than anyone else the Yellow Jackets have faced. Go Tigers, 30-28.

Cotton Bowl
#20 Ole Miss (8-4)(5-3) vs. #8 Texas Tech (11-1)(7-1)

<--- Tom's Pick
Red Raider QB Graham Harrell has thrown for 4,747 yds and 41 TD passes. Tech also has two backs that combine for 1,400 yds and 19 rushing TDs. Have to mention Crabtree here as well, 40 career TD receptions, 18 so far this year! Despite all of these offensive weapons, I think the Mississippi D will hold. Ole Miss held the Gators to 30 and Bama to 24, and no one has scored more than 31 on them all year. Snead, McCluster, and Hodge may not have the numbers to compare with Tech, but they make big plays when their defense is playing well. Rebels have a rare chance here to be great, and I think they show up to win. Rebs 35-31.

Capitol One Bowl
#16 Georgia (9-3)(6-2) vs. #19 Michigan State (9-3)(6-2)

<--- Tom's Pick
Stafford has 22 TD passes, only 9 pics. Moreno led the SEC with 1,338 rushing yards, but was held under 100 in each of the three defeats. Those games saw the Bulldogs allow more than 40 points each time while giving up an average of 241.0 rushing yards, including 409 versus Georgia Tech. The Spartans will be handing the ball off to Javon Ringer, as they have this season 370 times for 1,590 yds and 21 TDs. Really good stats but these guys don't run the option like Paul Johnson, or have a defense that can stop Stafford and Moreno. Dogs will go home with 10 wins this year, easy. 42-21.

Sugar Bowl
#4 Alabama (12-1)(8-1) vs. #7 Utah (12-0)(8-0) MWC Champs

<--- Tom's Pick
The Utes have the nation's longest active winning streak at 13 games after the Tide's 13-game run ended against Florida. Can Utah even establish any mis-matches on Bama's defense? Upfront is going to be the difference on both sides of the ball. Saban knows his team is bigger upfront with Antoine Caldwell and the fellas(Andre Smith out suspended for bowl), and very deep at running back with Mark Ingram backing up Glenn Coffee. Add JP Wilson to the mix, making no mistakes and big plays where he can... it's going to be another big win for Alabama. Brian Johnson is not only going to lose this game for the Utes, he might get hurt. Tide 35-10.

BCS National Championship Game
#1 Florida (12-1)(8-1) SEC Champs vs. #2 Oklahoma (12-1)(8-1) Big XII Champs

<---- Tom's Pick
Tim Tebow & Co. have averaged 49.4 points during their nine-game winning streak, and nobody has come within single digits of them since their 31-30 loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27. The Sooners have scored 61 or more points in their past five games, and their closest call during their seven-game winning streak was 14 points over Kansas. Tebow is at 100% and Percy Harvin is questionable, maybe not even playable. OU has its own problems with Bradford coming out of thumb surgery and DeMarco Murray also not playing. I like the Gators in this game because of their ability to stop the run and play against the pass better than Oklahoma. Although Sooner fans could argue their defense has faced much better offensive teams, while Gator fans could say the same about their own conference defenses. Oklahoma ranks 83rd overall in punt return defense, and UF's Brandon James ranks 15th nationally in returning punts. I think he'll make a big difference if Spikes and Co. can force OU to punt. It's going to be a classic, worthy of the 2005 Rose Bowl, USC vs Texas. Gators 42-35.